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Global Retail Development Index - 2016

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Global Retail Development Index has guided global retailers with their strategic investments since 2002, a period in which the retail environment in developing markets has undergone massive transformation. Since the first edition, we have seen retailers entering smaller, prosperous markets as well as large ones, and a game that was once dominated by big-box retailers has now opened up to a great variety of specialty retailers.

International retailers are also now more adept at tackling the individual challenges of each market, which require different strategies for success.

Retailers’ increased understanding of developing countries is more important today than ever before, as these markets struggle with shifting economic and political trends—sometimes in an extremely short timeframe.Overall, retailers over the past year took a longer-term view of developing markets, staying put in turbulent regions while making targeted investments in areas of growth.

The GRDI ranks the top 30 developing countries for retail investment. Using more than 20 macroeconomic and retail-specific variables, we identify not only the markets that are most successful today, but also those that offer future potential.

Last updated: 8 years ago

Category: Economic

Rank	Country	Score	Remarks
1	China	72.5	China’s economic growth has slowed, yet the GRDI’s top-ranked country remains one of the most attractive global retail markets.
2	India	71	GDP growth, improved ease of doing business, and better clarity regarding foreign direct investment (FDI) regulations put India in 2nd place.
3	Malaysia	59.6	Malaysia is the most business-friendly environment among Southeast Asian countries ranked in the GRDI.
4	Kazakhstan	56.5	Economists see retail as a source of economic growth amid low oil prices. The challenge is assuring investors that the country has the scale for long-term opportunities.
5	Indonesia	55.6	Despite its relatively low retail sales per capita and currency volatility, Indonesia’s huge population and cities make it quite attractive to foreign retailers.
6	Turkey	54.3	Turkey’s retail market remains attractive, with solid growth and untapped potential for concepts that could upend a market still dominated by traditional retailers.
7	United Arab Emirates	53.6	The UAE remains an attractive and relatively low-risk market option for retailers.
8	Saudi Arabia	52.2	Retail sales in the country grew by 5 percent over 2014, thanks largely to favorable demographic conditions.
9	Peru	51.9	Peru is Latin America’s top-ranked country, as it performed above regional averages and had 3.6 percent GDP growth, well ahead of the overall region.
10	Azerbaijan	51.2	The government has put effort into attracting tourists, advertising the capital Baku as a luxury destination.
11	Vietnam	50.8	Vietnam has low market saturation and GDP growth that is highest among Southeast Asian countries in the GRDI.
12	Sri Lanka	50.7	This island nation remains a favorable market for retail, thanks to a strong economy and few restrictions on foreign investment.
13	Jordan	49.9	Jordan's high ranking is thanks in large part to a retail market that is fairly unsaturated relative to other developing countries.
14	Morocco	49.5	A large and increasingly wealthy population, along with a relatively stable economic and political situation, puts Morocco in the upper half of the GRDI.
15	Colombia	49	Colombia's middle class is growing, its poverty levels are falling, and its scores for country risk and market saturation are strong.
16	Philippines	47.7	As the outsourcing industry helps boost the Philippines’ economic growth, long-term prospects for retail remain positive.
17	Dominican Republic	45.8	Dominican Republic has a large population, an expanding middle class, and a vibrant economy.
18	Algeria	45.2	Algeria’s strengths are pretty clear: a large population, one of Africa’s highest GDP per capita rates, and low retail saturation. But there are some risks.
19	Nigeria	43.8	Sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous country offers global retailers many opportunities, including a fast-growing middle class.
20	Brazil	43	Brazil’s 20th-place ranking highlights the political and economic instability that has rocked the country in the past year.
21	Côte d’Ivoire	43	Côte d’Ivoire has enjoyed rapid economic growth over the past four years and relative political stability after a decade-long war.
22	Russia	41.8	A weak but more stable ruble could help foreign retail chains developing new units and acquiring property, but the sales outlook will likely be middling at best.
23	Zambia	41.6	Modern retail is limited even as more consumers demand it. The players that dominate the formal retail market are mostly South African.
24	Romania	40.2	Although the country’s population is 45 percent rural, modern trade is developing fast. Major retailers are expanding aggressively with smaller formats.
25	Paraguay	39.6	Landlocked Paraguay's fundamentals are stabilizing, with GDP growth at 3.2 percent in 2015, and inflation falling within target ranges.
26	Tunisia	38.7	Tunisia's low market saturation and underserved population of 11 million represent a nice opportunity, particularly in grocery.
27	South Africa	36.7	Sub-Saharan Africa’s most developed country has its most saturated retail market, representing 88 percent of the available space in the whole region.
28	Ghana	36	Informal trade dominates, but rising disposable incomes are increasing the popularity of modern-style malls that offer one-stop shopping.
29	Kenya	35.6	Kenya has Africa’s second-largest modern retail market, and its strength is reinforced by sound economic growth, and a growing and urbanizing middle class.
30	Egypt	34.7	Egypt reenters the rankings for the first time since Arab Spring. As the country stabilizes, it offers an attractive medium-to-long-term value proposition for retailers.

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Global Retail Development Index - 2016

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Global Retail Development Index - 2016

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